And so it ends...

Once again, a very predictable result coming out of New Mexico on election night. Senator Barack Obama took the state 57% to John McCain's 42% with 100% of precincts reporting according to Real Clear Politics.

The Democrats also swept the four congressional seats up for grabs in New Mexico; the state will be sending three new representatives to the House and new Democrat Tom Udall to the Senate. Now Senator Udall was previously a Federal Representative before moving to the Senate Chamber. Three other Democrats; Martin Hinrich of Albuquerque, Harry Teague of Hobbs, and Ben Ray Lujan also won their House races on Tuesday.

According to Silver City Sun News this will be the first time in forty years that the Democrats will have made up the entire congressional delegation in New Mexico. The state also currently has a Democratic governor and their party controls both houses of the legislature in the state. The GOP has a lot to recover in the state over the next few years.

It may be safe to call New Mexico a solidly blue state from now on.

1-day to go!!!!

For a state that people originally thought would be a state to watch this election, New Mexico has really been quite dull these last few weeks.

A lot is made of Hispanic voters this election, and a lot more about John McCain's lack of a campaign in a state many believe he had a chance to win this election due to New Mexican voters typically conservative values. However you look at it though, there really isn't much question anymore about who's going to win the state and McCain's campaign staffers (the few he ever had here in the first place) have all but abandoned the historically swing state of New Mexico.

With Governor Bill Richardson hot on the campaign trail, New Mexican voters surprising affinity for Senator Obama, every poll, and various other reasons mentioned above or in previous blogs, I think I can safely say New Mexico's five little electoral votes will be going with the blue this election and will help Senator Obama along in what looks to be an almost certain national victory for the law professor from Chicago. Who would have thought?

Lawsuits already?

I guess its not even a surprise anymore when elections are followed by massive lawsuits, the loser always doing anything and everything in his/her power to contest the winner's results.

According to the Wall Street Journal however, the number of lawsuits challenging election procedures could hit an all-time high this year. The majority of these lawsuits are being filed by the Republican party and individual voters in big battleground states such as New Mexico.

The article states that the cases being brought before the courts may not mean anything if Obama wins the country by the margin predicted, but if it's close and it ends up coming down to a couple of states, all of these legal battles could end up making a difference. Should be an interesting couple of days after the election is over and counted.

Obama's Campaign in New Mexico

It is pretty safe to say that Obama's campaign has literally smashed McCain's "campaign" in New Mexico. In a recent article on gather.com, a columnist talks about the lack of Republican campaigning in New Mexico in general, but especially in the small towns.

Its almost like these last couple of weeks have seen McCain in a last ditch effort to try and win the state after he realized he was going to need it to win, only, it was probably already too late. It seems silly to almost entirely abandon a state that voted Bush into office in 2004, but I guess there's a lot of things that seem silly about McCain's campaign.

One things for sure, New Mexico is important, and come election night as the votes are being tallied, people will be looking towards New Mexico to see which way she'll go. I'm not sure how much of a contest it will be though.

Once again...

In a recent Los Angeles Times article, the importance of the Hispanic vote is once again addressed. Obviously this is especially applicable to New Mexico...

Campaigning Away

It never stops, at least that's how I feel and I'm sure Obama and McCain are thinking something along the same lines.

Yesterday Obama was back in New Mexico, campaigning and trying to insure a vote that increasingly looks like it is, the Hispanic vote. About 45,000 supporters showed up at a rally at the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque where Obama talked more about his tax cuts for 95% of Americans and assuring his audience he would focus all his energy on the middle class.

McCain also spent some time in New Mexico yesterday as well as a few quick stops in Texas, where he looks to be ahead but where polls also show his popularity is decreasing. In his stump speeches throughout the Southwest region McCain attempted to push the fact that Obama has never been South of the border and that he, McCain, understood the issues that are important here at a level Obama does not.

Its push time for both candidates now, but they are not done yet.

10 days to go!

Its hard to believe there's only ten days left until the big day. Everything is sealing up and most states are growing more and more predictable, New Mexico included.
We were all a little surprised when news came earlier this week that announced McCain was abandoning important "swing" states such as New Mexico and Colorado. His campaigns in some states, such as Colorado, have fought back against this news, saying they are not abandoning their state just yet, but a similar backlash in New Mexico has not been seen.
I've posted before about McCain's almost complete lack of a presence in the state and with the removal of his campaign, its pretty clear McCain has faced up to reality and conceded the state I'm not sure he ever really had a chance of winning this election, despite the state's conservative politics and Republican voting history.
According to Pollster.com the Democratic senator Barack Obama leads McCain in the polls 50.4% to McCain's 43.9%.
In several recent studies the issue is said to be McCain's unpopularity with Hispanic voters, due in part, according to a recent New York Times article, to the issues turning other voters away from McCain, things like the faltering economy. Obviously in New Mexico this is a group of voters someone wanting to win the state cannot afford to alienate.
Although it appears to be over, the Republicans surprisingly are not giving up. John McCain is actually making two campaign stops in the state this week, in what seems to be a last ditch attempt to try to win in a state that helped carry George Bush to victory in 2004.
Its close, there's no denying that, and despite rumors of ditching the state and no ready response from the Republicans, McCain is still here, and he's not finished yet. Despite that however, with ten days to go until election day, I would have to say the state's votes will most likely go to Obama, it appears to me that McCain is trying to pick up some votes in a state he lost a long time ago.

Paper Ballots

The Guardian, a British blog-site has an interesting post about the status of the voting system in New Mexico. Apparently ballots in New Mexico have a habit of "getting lost."
According to the group VoteTrust USA New Mexico has a sky-high rate of "undervotes," ballots that have been cast but do not include a vote in a particular contest, most often the presidential race. This problem received little attention after the 2004 election because New Mexico's 5 electoral votes would not have mattered in the scope of things, but this election is a different story.
Amidst lawsuits and complaints about the electronic machines responsible for balloting, Governor Bill Richardson signed a state law in 2006 banning the machines and requiring paper ballots.
Hopefully the undervoting problem will not be an issue this election, but people are still going to the polls early and doing whatever they can to insure that their vote is going to count this election as early voting began earlier this week.

Is McCain giving up New Mexico?

Last night CNN's John King reported that the McCain campaign, while still officially listing New Mexico among several other swing states as target states, has told CNN that the situation "in those states looks increasingly bleak." In other words, the McCain campaign may be virtually giving up their campaigning in New Mexico along with other states such as Colorado, in lieu of more campaigning in the several swing states McCain is banking on to win the election, states which include Pennsylvania and Florida.
This may be foolish and maybe not, while New Mexico is historically Republican, it grows increasingly more Democratic each year and polls show Obama with a substantial lead in the state. However McCain's withdrawal from states such as New Mexico and Colorado, states which would be hard but maybe not impossible for the senator to win, leaves him with little room for error, as the states he in which he is remaining become vital and 100% necessary if he hopes to pull a win in November.

Dems making substantial in-roads

According to New Mexico political analyst Heath Haussamen New Mexico is a snapshot of the nation as a whole; Democrats are taking over. In his opinion the Democrats could sweep all elections in the state this year and maybe the most surprising is Harry Teague, a Democrat running for congress in a congressional district that has elected Republicans consistently for the last 28 years.

According to several, but not all polls, Mr. Teague is ahead of his opponent Ed Tinsley and this can be attributed to the floundering economy and financial crisis according to Haussamen.

In the other important race in the state, Republican Steve Pearce is trailing his opponent Tom Udall in the polls; the two are running for the senate.
According to Tinsley he still thinks the Republicans have a chance but fears that the economic turmoil does not bode well for the party in general.

It will be interesting to watch as the day gets closer and more polling is done to determine which of the candidates will take the available seats.

Ladies for Victory!

Republicans aren't giving up in New Mexico yet. Despite negative polls and other obstacles the McCain campaign faces in New Mexico the Republican National Committee has announced that the 'Ladies for Victory 2008' tour will be stopping in numerous New Mexico towns tomorrow.
The Ladies for Victory tour is led by New Mexico Republican representative Heather Wilson along with several other notable women and will rally support for John McCain on October 18. They will be addressing grassroots volunteers and answering questions during stops in Albuquerque, Sandoval, and Santa Fe.

Swing Voters

Everybody counts in the state of New Mexico according to Slate reporter Jacob Leibenflut, check out his article about swing voters in some of New Mexico's smallest counties here.

Victory in sight?

Although George Bush took the state in 2004, all signs are pointing towards Obama in this election. Various reasons have been cited for why New Mexicans have changed their political leanings, things such as McCain's seeming lack of a campaign in New Mexico, Obama's huge campaign in the state, Democratic governor Bill Richardson's unabashed support for Obama, and locals surprising ability to identify with Obama and his campaign.

According to New Mexico-based political analyst Heath Haussamen, the state is now leaning towards Obama as concerns over the faltering economy deepened. And just as New Hampshire and other swing states seem to be doing; polls declare that New Mexico is no longer a toss-up.

History too is on Obama's side, there have only been two instances since New Mexico became a state, in which the winner of the state's electoral votes did not go on to win the election and in recent elections in New Mexico, Republicans can't seem to muster the votes.

According to Haussamen and other experts, McCain could have had a chance in New Mexico based on issues such as his stance towards drilling and immigration reform, but the economy is drowning out talk on anything else, and as is obvious to anyone paying attention, McCain has yet to achieve any coherent message concerning the economy and what he is going to do about the problems we're facing.

The Economic meltdown looks certain to cost McCain New Mexico, the question remains whether it will cost him the election.

U.S House Race

The race for the house seat in the 2nd congressional district of Southern New Mexico is shaping up to be an interesting race. The race pits Republican Ed Tinsley against Democrat Harry Teague who is attempting to take the seat which has been filled by a Republican since 1980 according to the Associated Press.
Tinsley is a rancher and owner of a successful steakhouse chain who has an extensive background in business while Teague is billing himself as a populist who comes from blue-collar roots.
The other race that will be interesting is the race between Democrat and Albuquerque city council member Martin Heinrich and Republican and Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White. Heinrich is the favorite in the race but the 2006 race for the seat was extremely close with the seat awarded to Republican Heather Wilson.
According to Heath Haussamen of New West Politics the New Mexicans may not send a single Republican to Washington this year, what was once a divided state has now become nearly a true blue state.

New Poll - Obama with a 5-point lead

A poll of more than 600 likely voters in New Mexico has found that Senator Obama now has a 5-point edge over Senator McCain.
The poll was carried out by Albuquerque-based Research & Polling, Inc., and was a telephone survey of 659 registered voters who say they are likely to vote on November 4.

John McCain visits Albuquerque

Senator McCain will probably spend the next couple of the weeks attacking Obama and defending his own credentials like there was no tomorrow. We've reached the final stretch and nearly everyone is in agreement; Senator John McCain's bid for the White House is not looking good.
In a campaign stop in Albuquerque yesterday though, McCain was endeavoring to answer the question 'Who is the Real Barack Obama?'
He talked about Obama accepting campaign donations from Pakistanis, his lack of accomplishments while in government, and blamed Senator Obama for the delayed passing of the bailout bill, among other things.
This is McCain's fifth visit to the state since Memorial Day and took place at the University of New Mexico.
According to local New Mexico senator Pete Domenici, McCain is the best suited to handle local issues such as Native American affairs and stressed the importance of electing a Westerner to office. But young Democrats at the university are still skeptical as some students held a local news conference across the street from the location of McCain's speech after he finished.

Hispanic Vote

I guess its pretty obvious that McCain's campaign can't hold a handle to Obama's in New Mexico, but there is always the lingering question of how much of the Hispanic vote Obama will be able to corner this election.
There is a historic division between African-Americans and Hispanics, a deep-seated tension that was un-tactfully expressed in de Baca's comments several weeks ago. Regardless of this historic prejudice, it seems to be safe to say that the Democrats have the market cornered in New Mexico this election.
In the 2004 election it is estimated that about 40% of American Hispanics voted for the Republican George Bush, a 9% increase from the 2000 election, but this year its an entirely different story.
This election it appears that McCain is trailing Obama with the Hispanic vote by about 30%, a sizable margin considering that New Mexico's population consists of 37% Hispanics.
This difference owes itself to many things, not the least of which is Obama's concentrated effort to reach out to the Hispanic population, and actually presenting himself as someone they can identify with, something McCain seems to be completely un-concerned with. Another problem plaguing the Republicans and McCain in their effort to get some of the Hispanic vote is Bush's un-popular stance on immigration, and according to some, the border fence was the last straw and many Hispanics can think of no-one they know who is planning to vote Republican.
And to top the cake for Democrats, or rain on the Republican's parade some more, whichever way you want to look at it, Governor Bill Richardson has already predicted an Obama win in New Mexico.
I don't know, but it looks as if its shaping up to be an easy Democratic win in New Mexico this election.

Controversies in NM GOP

The New Mexico Republicans just can't seem to keep it together this election:

- Fernando C de Baca, GOP chairman in Bernalillo County stepped down after he was quoted in a BBC news blog, "The truth is that Hispanics came here as conquerors. African-Americans came here as slaves. Hispanics consider themselves above blacks. They won't vote for a black president."

- This controversy over de Baca's comments has led to other problems including what state representative candidate Janice Arnold-Jones calls a "smear campaign" being carried out against her campaign because of her support of de Baca. Apparently an angry citizen is giving out her cell phone number and asking voters to call her and say "we expect our state leaders to denounce racist comments, not support them." (see article)

These latest problems encountered by local Republicans in New Mexico is largely representative of the frustration felt by many, as John McCain has virtually ignored the state in his bid for the presidency this election.

Obama winning over crucial Northern New Mexico Vote

Old New Mexico is centered around a little town called Corrales, whose major issues are not the war in Iraq or the economy, but rather the basics; land and water. Since the days of FDR the citizens of this and other towns just like it have been traditionally Democratic, but recently this has been little indication of who New Mexico hispanics will vote for or whether they will vote at all. According to Mayhill Fowler, a blogger for the "Huffington Post," it is Obama who is making signifcant inroads in the small, but important Hispanic community of Nortenos in Northern New Mexico. The ranching and farming vote is not as important as it once was but according to New Mexican experts, this vote represents a gold mine for the candidate who wins their support; many are not registered to vote or else have not voted in a long time. According to the blog the Obama campaign has targeted this norteno vote while the McCain campaign has yet to do so.

There are 35 field offices for the Obama campaign currently in New Mexico and Governor Bill Richardson opened the Hispanics for Obama office in Santa Fe just last week. But according to Fowler, the reason Obama has a significant lead in the polls for Hispanic voters is his visit and rally in Espanola last week; no candidate since John Kennedy has campaigned North of Santa Fe, and, according to locals, the lack of a visit by John Kerry in 2004 greatly influenced the lack of enthusiasm Northern New Mexicans felt for his candidacy. With Obama's historic visit to Northern Mexico last week, the people of New Mexico felt a connection to Obama and they felt as if "He is one of us," according to Fowler.

It is events such as this that are going to win the Hispanics and traditional ranchers and farmers of New Mexico over to a candidate. McCain's volunteers in New Mexico have been begging for appearances, even of surrogates, only to be brushed aside. During the early months of Obama's and McCain's candidacy in 2007, there was only tepid support for Obama,

New Poll Shows Sizable Obama Lead in NM 9/17/08

According to a recent poll conducted by SurveyUSA for KOB-TV in Albuquerque, Obama leads McCain 52-44%, giving him a solid lead.
McCain leads by 11 among whites; Obama leads by 41 among Hispanics. Obama leads by 12 among voters younger than Obama. McCain leads by 10 among voters older than McCain. Half of voters say the economy is most important. Among those voters, Obama leads 3:2. Obama leads among the more educated. McCain leads among the less educated. Obama leads among the less affluent. McCain leads among the more affluent, all according to the recent poll.

50 Day Prediction

As of today we have officially 50 days until the big day.  November 11 is a little less than two months away.  If the election were held today in the state of New Mexico, according to current polling, Senator Barrack Obama would take the state.  

The most recent poll in the state was conducted by Zogby and was an internet poll which recorded 46% support for Obama and 44% for McCain.  The majority of other reputable polls which have been conducted in the state also record a slight, or a slightly larger lead for Obama.  The Rasmussen poll of September 8 records a 49-47 McCain lead over Obama, a reversal from their July poll which showed Obama leading the race.

In my opinion however, it looks as though Obama would take the 5 electoral votes in New Mexico if the election were held today.

Important Issues

One issue that will prove important not only to New Mexico, but also to the rest of the country in this election as New Mexico's importance as a swing state is understood, is the environmental-preservationist issue.  New Mexico is a state full of outdoors users and therefore the issues of hunting, etc. will be vital to this state.

Another thing that will prove important to the candidates in their fight for New Mexico is their appeal for Hispanic voters; the number of Hispanic voters in the state is well over 700,000.  This fact will obviously lead to the importance of the immigration question; another top issue in New Mexico.  

Issues relating to labor and taxes will also prove important to New Mexico voters as well as issues relative to many Americans such as the economy and the war in Iraq.

Demographic Geography & Important Facts

Here's a quick rundown of some of the more important demographic statistics for New Mexico and some important facts from it's political history.

Registered Voters: Democrats: 538,471 (49.4%); Republicans: 358,825 (33.0%); Others: 191,681 (17.6%)

Estimated Population (as of 2006): 1,954,599

New Mexico has a history of voting with the average.  Although historically a blue state New Mexico supported President Bush for re-election in 2004.  In the 1980's the state voted Republican while in the 1990's they voted Democratic, supporting Clinton over the Republicans in both 1992 and 1996.  In 2000 they supported Al Gore by a margin of only 365 votes and in 2004 they went with President Bush by around 6,000 votes.  As for this year's election the election could potentially be very close.  There are many factors on the side of the Democrats; the Democratic governor Bill Richardson and the large population of Hispanic voters who traditionally vote Democratic but there is also their 2004 vote for Bush to consider as well as the proximity of Arizona which is the home-state of Republican contender John McCain.

Primary Results

The New Mexico primary and caucus is held fairly early for the Democrats and very late for the Republicans.  Here are the official results which, for the Democrats represented a close race and for the Republicans was not even really a contest.

Democrats:

26 pledged delegates, 12 unpledged

Candidate: Votes %

Hilary Rodham Clinton 68,654 48.8

Barack Obama 67,531 48.0

John Edwards 2,060 1.5

Republicans:

29 pledged delegates, 3 unpledged

Candidate: Votes %

John McCain 94,419 86.0

Ron Paul 15,379 14.0

Which way did the primaries go?

New Mexico is historically a swing state and in times past has been a difficult state to predict.  It was no different this year with the Democrats holding their primary and caucus in February and the Republicans holding there's in June.  The Democratic primary resulted in a victory for Clinton although her margin of victory was far too close for comfort, defeating her opponent Obama by less than a thousand votes.  By the time the Republicans held their primary and caucus in June the final candidate left in the race, McCain obviously took the state.  He did however, receive a very substantial number of votes making the state appear to support the Republicans in this election after he received more than 6,000 additional votes to Senator Clinton.