Obama winning over crucial Northern New Mexico Vote

Old New Mexico is centered around a little town called Corrales, whose major issues are not the war in Iraq or the economy, but rather the basics; land and water. Since the days of FDR the citizens of this and other towns just like it have been traditionally Democratic, but recently this has been little indication of who New Mexico hispanics will vote for or whether they will vote at all. According to Mayhill Fowler, a blogger for the "Huffington Post," it is Obama who is making signifcant inroads in the small, but important Hispanic community of Nortenos in Northern New Mexico. The ranching and farming vote is not as important as it once was but according to New Mexican experts, this vote represents a gold mine for the candidate who wins their support; many are not registered to vote or else have not voted in a long time. According to the blog the Obama campaign has targeted this norteno vote while the McCain campaign has yet to do so.

There are 35 field offices for the Obama campaign currently in New Mexico and Governor Bill Richardson opened the Hispanics for Obama office in Santa Fe just last week. But according to Fowler, the reason Obama has a significant lead in the polls for Hispanic voters is his visit and rally in Espanola last week; no candidate since John Kennedy has campaigned North of Santa Fe, and, according to locals, the lack of a visit by John Kerry in 2004 greatly influenced the lack of enthusiasm Northern New Mexicans felt for his candidacy. With Obama's historic visit to Northern Mexico last week, the people of New Mexico felt a connection to Obama and they felt as if "He is one of us," according to Fowler.

It is events such as this that are going to win the Hispanics and traditional ranchers and farmers of New Mexico over to a candidate. McCain's volunteers in New Mexico have been begging for appearances, even of surrogates, only to be brushed aside. During the early months of Obama's and McCain's candidacy in 2007, there was only tepid support for Obama,

New Poll Shows Sizable Obama Lead in NM 9/17/08

According to a recent poll conducted by SurveyUSA for KOB-TV in Albuquerque, Obama leads McCain 52-44%, giving him a solid lead.
McCain leads by 11 among whites; Obama leads by 41 among Hispanics. Obama leads by 12 among voters younger than Obama. McCain leads by 10 among voters older than McCain. Half of voters say the economy is most important. Among those voters, Obama leads 3:2. Obama leads among the more educated. McCain leads among the less educated. Obama leads among the less affluent. McCain leads among the more affluent, all according to the recent poll.

50 Day Prediction

As of today we have officially 50 days until the big day.  November 11 is a little less than two months away.  If the election were held today in the state of New Mexico, according to current polling, Senator Barrack Obama would take the state.  

The most recent poll in the state was conducted by Zogby and was an internet poll which recorded 46% support for Obama and 44% for McCain.  The majority of other reputable polls which have been conducted in the state also record a slight, or a slightly larger lead for Obama.  The Rasmussen poll of September 8 records a 49-47 McCain lead over Obama, a reversal from their July poll which showed Obama leading the race.

In my opinion however, it looks as though Obama would take the 5 electoral votes in New Mexico if the election were held today.

Important Issues

One issue that will prove important not only to New Mexico, but also to the rest of the country in this election as New Mexico's importance as a swing state is understood, is the environmental-preservationist issue.  New Mexico is a state full of outdoors users and therefore the issues of hunting, etc. will be vital to this state.

Another thing that will prove important to the candidates in their fight for New Mexico is their appeal for Hispanic voters; the number of Hispanic voters in the state is well over 700,000.  This fact will obviously lead to the importance of the immigration question; another top issue in New Mexico.  

Issues relating to labor and taxes will also prove important to New Mexico voters as well as issues relative to many Americans such as the economy and the war in Iraq.

Demographic Geography & Important Facts

Here's a quick rundown of some of the more important demographic statistics for New Mexico and some important facts from it's political history.

Registered Voters: Democrats: 538,471 (49.4%); Republicans: 358,825 (33.0%); Others: 191,681 (17.6%)

Estimated Population (as of 2006): 1,954,599

New Mexico has a history of voting with the average.  Although historically a blue state New Mexico supported President Bush for re-election in 2004.  In the 1980's the state voted Republican while in the 1990's they voted Democratic, supporting Clinton over the Republicans in both 1992 and 1996.  In 2000 they supported Al Gore by a margin of only 365 votes and in 2004 they went with President Bush by around 6,000 votes.  As for this year's election the election could potentially be very close.  There are many factors on the side of the Democrats; the Democratic governor Bill Richardson and the large population of Hispanic voters who traditionally vote Democratic but there is also their 2004 vote for Bush to consider as well as the proximity of Arizona which is the home-state of Republican contender John McCain.

Primary Results

The New Mexico primary and caucus is held fairly early for the Democrats and very late for the Republicans.  Here are the official results which, for the Democrats represented a close race and for the Republicans was not even really a contest.

Democrats:

26 pledged delegates, 12 unpledged

Candidate: Votes %

Hilary Rodham Clinton 68,654 48.8

Barack Obama 67,531 48.0

John Edwards 2,060 1.5

Republicans:

29 pledged delegates, 3 unpledged

Candidate: Votes %

John McCain 94,419 86.0

Ron Paul 15,379 14.0

Which way did the primaries go?

New Mexico is historically a swing state and in times past has been a difficult state to predict.  It was no different this year with the Democrats holding their primary and caucus in February and the Republicans holding there's in June.  The Democratic primary resulted in a victory for Clinton although her margin of victory was far too close for comfort, defeating her opponent Obama by less than a thousand votes.  By the time the Republicans held their primary and caucus in June the final candidate left in the race, McCain obviously took the state.  He did however, receive a very substantial number of votes making the state appear to support the Republicans in this election after he received more than 6,000 additional votes to Senator Clinton.